The 2020 election season promises to be intriguing up and down the general election ballot. One legislative body that will be hotly contested this year is the Florida State Senate. Currently, Republicans hold a slim 22-18 majority in the state’s “upper chamber,” but they’re now on the defense with a number of Senate seats up for grabs in November. Four (or five depending on who you ask) priority races will shape the balance of the state senate for the next two years and set the stage for a potential power shift in Tallahassee. If Democrats manage to pick up just two seats, while protecting those they currently hold, the Senate would be evenly split at 20-20, a makeup not seen since 1992 when Ander Crenshaw (R – Jacksonville) and Pat Thomas (D – Quincy) each took a year (in the two year cycle) as President of the Senate. Suffice to say, much is at stake.
The battle lines are drawn for the Republican Senate Majority, led by incoming Senate President Wilton Simpson (R – Spring Hill) and the Democrats’ Senate Victory effort, which is led by incoming Minority Leader Senator Gary Farmer (D – Ft. Lauderdale). Let’s explore these races that promise to be some of the most contentious – and expensive – battles in recent legislative history.
Incumbent long-time Senator David Simmons (R –Longwood) is termed out, setting up a showdown for this open seat. The district, once a reliable Republican seat, has become more and more competitive in recent years. In 2018, Rick Scott received 50 percent of the vote in a district that consists of 36 percent Republican, 35 percent Democrats, and 29 percent other (mostly NPA). Accordingly, the Democrats believe it is in play. Republican heavyweight and former State Representative Jason Brodeur leads the race with cash on hand, but has a formidable challenger in Democrat, and local attorney, Patricia Sigman.
Senator Tom Lee, former President of the Florida Senate, recently announced that he will not be seeking reelection, prompting the Governor to issue an executive order for a special election to fill the vacant seat. Former State Representative Danny Burgess has resigned as Executive Director of the Florida Department of Veterans’ Affairs and announced his candidacy with the support of the Senate Majority committee. While the district encompasses three counties, the majority of voters reside in Hillsborough County. If a strong Democrat files for this seat, it could be a race to watch.
Incumbent Senator Gayle Harrell (R – Stuart) seeks to defend a seat that has been trending purple in recent cycles, but still holds as a “Republican” seat. Both Scott and DeSantis received 53 percent of the vote in the district in 2018. She will have the full weight of the Senate Majority campaign machine behind her as she takes on the winner in the Democratic primary between Reinaldo Daniel Diaz and Corinna Balderramos Robinson.
Powerful Senate Rules Chair Lizbeth Benacquisto (R – Ft. Myers) vacates this seat due to term limits. Up to bat for the Republicans in this district, which leans Republican, is former House Majority Leader Ray Rodrigues (R – Ft. Myers). He will face off against Democratic candidate Rachel Brown in the November general election.
Another seat being vacated because of term limits is Senator Anitere Flores’ (R – Miami) seat in SD 39. The bulk of the population is in Miami-Dade County, where formerly strong conservative seats have seen demographic and political shifts push them into contention in recent years. The Republicans have put up rising star State Representative Ana Maria Rodriguez (R –Doral), a long-time veteran of the legislative process, who is completing her first term in the Florida House of Representatives. The Democrats have put up a formidable challenger in Javier Fernandez, who is likely to win a contested Democratic primary against Daniel Horton-Diaz in August. In 2016, Trump only garnered 43 percent of the vote in this district, while DeSantis and Scott fared slightly better with 49 percent of the vote. Thus, the performance of this district puts it solidly in the swing category, especially in a Presidential Election year.
There will be many interesting angles and storylines emerging from these races (and others) as we get into the heat of Florida’s political season. With the Presidential contest at the top of the ballot, we can expect that there will be trickle down impacts on the races below. With the balance of power in the Florida Senate hanging over these key races, expect a long and expensive road ahead between now and November. State Senate Races in Play
Previous Article